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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 November 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 05/2224Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/1837Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/0909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7467 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Nov), quiet levels on day two (08 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 069
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 069/070/070
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  022/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  007/008-006/005-011/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/35
Minor Storm           05/01/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    30/15/55

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