Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 November 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s at 07/1835Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/1756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/1832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10832 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 069
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  006/005-011/016-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           01/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/55/60

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