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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 November 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, November 8, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 08/1512Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/0826Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/0833Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8829 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 Nov, 10
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 070
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  011/016-014/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/60/50

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