Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 November 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, November 10, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 10/1332Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 10/0008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 10/0814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1668 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Nov). III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Nov 069 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 011/012-009/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor Storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 45/40/30

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