Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 December 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, December 1, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 01/1916Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/1737Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/1554Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 069
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  002/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  021/028-011/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/25/25
Minor Storm           25/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    70/40/40

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