From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, December 6, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 06/0115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec). III. Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Dec 070 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 070/070/068 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 010/010-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 35/25/25 Major-severe storm 30/20/20
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