Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 December 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, December 6, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 06/0115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 070
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  010/010-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           35/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/20

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