From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, January 1, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 476 km/s at 31/2204Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/0556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0949Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1700 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Jan, 03 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 072
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 006/005-005/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/40
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