Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 January 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, January 4, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (05 Jan, 06 Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (07 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 04/1837Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 04/1709Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 04/1953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 666 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Jan). III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Jan 072 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 072/072/070 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 018/024-012/015-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/15 Minor Storm 25/20/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 65/60/25

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