From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, January 5, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 05/1451Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 04/2145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 04/2207Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (08 Jan). III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Jan 071 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 071/070/070 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 010/012-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/25/10
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