Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 January 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, January 5, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 05/1451Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 04/2145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 04/2207Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (08 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 071
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan 071/070/070
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  010/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/10

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