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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 January 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, January 6, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1051Z from Region 2732 (N09W85). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 06/1351Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/1606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1509 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 072
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 072/070/070
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10

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