From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, January 6, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1051Z from Region 2732 (N09W85). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 06/1351Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/1606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1509 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan). III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Jan 072 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 072/070/070 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 008/008-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/10/10
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