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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 January 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, January 8, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 08/0237Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2650 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 071
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

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