From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, January 17, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 17/2014Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 17/1340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/1408Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan). III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jan 070 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 006/006-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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