From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, January 31, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 31/1628Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 31/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 31/2026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1413 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb). III. Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Jan 072 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 011/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 013/018-010/012-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor Storm 25/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/20/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 55/30/25
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