From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, February 1, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 627 km/s at 01/1015Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 31/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 31/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 898 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (02 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb). III. Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Feb 072 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 012/016-010/012-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/20 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 30/25/25
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