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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 February 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, February 1, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 627 km/s at 01/1015Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 31/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 31/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 898 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (02 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 072
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  012/016-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/25/25

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