From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, February 2, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 613 km/s at 02/1818Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/0521Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0403Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11372 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Feb, 04 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Feb). III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Feb 071 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 010/012-008/008-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/30 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 25/25/30
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