From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, February 3, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 639 km/s at 03/0434Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/2157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13890 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Feb, 06 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 Feb). III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Feb 071 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 008/008-010/012-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 25/30/25
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