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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 February 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, February 3, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 639 km/s at 03/0434Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/2157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13890 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Feb, 06 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 071
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  008/008-010/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/30/25

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