From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, February 4, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 03/2109Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2050Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/2037Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13540 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (07 Feb). III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Feb 071 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 010/012-009/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/15 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 30/30/15 Major-severe storm 30/25/15
// end //