From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 04/2105Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8016 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Feb). III. Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Feb 071 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 009/008-009/008-012/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/30 Minor Storm 01/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 25/30/20 Major-severe storm 15/25/30
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