From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, February 6, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 06/2058Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/1047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 06/1034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2385 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb). III. Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Feb 070 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 008/010-013/015-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor Storm 30/20/35 Major-severe storm 25/30/30
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