From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, February 7, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 06/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/2002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3630 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (08 Feb, 09 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Feb). III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Feb 070 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 011/015-011/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/15 Minor Storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/35/20
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