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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 February 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, February 8, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 08/2043Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/2040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3797 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (11 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 071
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  011/015-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/10

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