From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, February 9, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 09/0500Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/0641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/0523Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3750 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Feb), quiet levels on day two (11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Feb). III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Feb 070 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 010/012-006/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/10/15 Minor Storm 10/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 30/20/25 Major-severe storm 30/10/20
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