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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 February 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, February 23, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 22/2227Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 071
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10


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