From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, March 10, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 09/2312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/1900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/0050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2257 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (12 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Mar). III. Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Mar 071 Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 071/071/070 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 022/030-014/018-014/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/35 Minor Storm 20/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/35/35 Major-severe storm 55/40/40
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