From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, March 11, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 10/2141Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/1741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0603Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2179 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar). III. Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Mar 070 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 010/015-011/020-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 35/35/35
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