From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 12/0639Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0642Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/0653Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2406 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (13 Mar, 15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Mar). III. Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Mar 071 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 010/012-009/010-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/30 Minor Storm 10/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 35/20/35
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