From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 13/0029Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/1914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 464 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Mar, 16 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Mar). III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Mar 071 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 070/070/068 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 009/008-010/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/10 Minor Storm 01/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 10/30/20
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