From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, April 4, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 04/1657Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/1321Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 04/0906Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 479 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 Apr, 07 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Apr). III. Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Apr 070 Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 011/012-007/010-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/30 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/30/30
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