From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, April 9, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 09/1216Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4297 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr). III. Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Apr 079 Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 079/078/078 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 009/010-007/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 25/25/25
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