From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, April 11, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 10/2237Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2706 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (14 Apr). III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Apr 079 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 010/012-011/012-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 30/35/20 Major-severe storm 35/30/20
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