From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, April 14, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very lowwith a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 13/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4476 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr). III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Apr 075 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/20/20
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