From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very lowwith a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 16/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 733 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr). III. Event probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Apr 076 Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 076/074/072 90 Day Mean 17 Apr 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 006/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/20
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