From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 23/0624Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/2013Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 23/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24 Apr, 26 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Apr). III. Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Apr 069 Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 23 Apr 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 007/008-012/015-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/20 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 20/30/20
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