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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 May 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 346 km/s at 07/2238Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 885 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 May, 10 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 May). III. Event probabilities 09 May-11 May Class M 05/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 May 075 Predicted 09 May-11 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 08 May 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 006/005-006/005-013/014 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/40 Minor Storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/30 Major-severe storm 10/15/45


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