From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, May 9, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 09/0551Z from Region 2740 (N08E00). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 391 km/s at 09/1850Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/0832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 843 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (11 May, 12 May). III. Event probabilities 10 May-12 May Class M 05/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 May 076 Predicted 10 May-12 May 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 09 May 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 006/005-013/014-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/40/35 Minor Storm 01/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/30/30 Major-severe storm 15/45/40
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