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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 May 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, May 9, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 09/0551Z from Region 2740 (N08E00). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 391 km/s at 09/1850Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/0832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 843 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (11 May, 12 May).

III.  Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 076
Predicted   10 May-12 May 076/076/076
90 Day Mean        09 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  006/005-013/014-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/35
Minor Storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/45/40

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