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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 May 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, May 11, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 11/0928Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 11/0145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 11/0702Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3374 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 May) and quiet levels on day three (14 May).

III.  Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 078
Predicted   12 May-14 May 077/077/077
90 Day Mean        11 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  015/016-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/10

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