From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, May 12, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 12/0744Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13216 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 May, 14 May) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (15 May). III. Event probabilities 13 May-15 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 May 076 Predicted 13 May-15 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 12 May 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 019/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 005/005-006/005-019/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/40 Minor Storm 01/01/30 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 15/20/25 Major-severe storm 15/10/60
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