From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, May 13, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 13/1942Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/1047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/0857Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13474 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 May), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (15 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 May). III. Event probabilities 14 May-16 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 May 075 Predicted 14 May-16 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 13 May 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 005/005-018/024-020/030 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/35 Minor Storm 01/25/30 Major-severe storm 01/15/15 B. High Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/55/65
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