From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, May 23, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 23/2004Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/1546Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1851Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (24 May, 26 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 May). III. Event probabilities 24 May-26 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 May 067 Predicted 24 May-26 May 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 23 May 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 006/005-007/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/10 Minor Storm 01/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-severe storm 15/25/15
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