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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 June 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, June 6, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 335 km/s at 05/2322Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 069
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  008/008-008/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/30/25

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