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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 June 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 12/1228Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/1111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/0924Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (15 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 070
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  011/012-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           35/20/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/15

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