Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 July 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 03/1648Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/1035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1526Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Jul, 06 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 Jul). III. Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Jul 067 Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 03 Jul 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 007/008-013/018-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/25 Minor Storm 05/20/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/10/20 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 20/50/30

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