Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 July 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, July 4, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 418 km/s at 04/0133Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/1417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1917Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (07 Jul). III. Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Jul 068 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 013/018-007/010-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/10 Minor Storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/20/15 Minor Storm 25/30/20 Major-severe storm 50/30/20

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