Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 September 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, September 7, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low

on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 07/0933Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/0055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 07/1609Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19284 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep). III. Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Sep 074 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 067 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 009/008-005/005-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 15/10/10

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