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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 September 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 11/1055Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0514Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6726 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep). III. Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Sep 068 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 067 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 004/005-004/005-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10


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