From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, September 12, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 12/0649Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0831Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5279 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 069
Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 12 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
// end //