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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 September 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, September 14, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 13/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3102 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep). III. Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Sep 069 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 067 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 006/006-006/006-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/20


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