From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, September 15, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 15/0911Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/1141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/0632Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5476 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 068
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 006/006-007/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/25
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