From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 02/1658Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/0738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3906 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (05 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 068
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 009/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/20
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