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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 October 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 09/0649Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 09/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 459 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct). III. Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Oct 068 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 005/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/10/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/05


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